by AST1N 1 month ago
Quarterbacks are the foundation to a team, and some coaches/GMs will enter this cycle with better situations than others. Depth charts are set, but a lot can change in the next year. With that in mind, here is my breakdown of how likely each team is going to find themselves with a new starting QB in the 2nd year of the cycle with a guy not currently on their roster. This also includes anyone who makes a trade in the first season, signs FAs to be starters, drafts guys in the offseason, or picks up recently released FA QBs to be starters in the first offseason.
Bills – Josh Allen, Case Keenum, Matt Barkley
Ravens – Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Brett Hundley, Anthony Brown
Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, CJ Bethard, Jake Luton, EJ Perry
Titans – Ryan Tannehill, Logan Woodside, Malik Willis
Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne
Chargers – Justin Herbert, Chase Daniel, Easton Stick
Cowboys – Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Will Grier
Bears – Justin Fields, Tervor Siemian, Nathan Peterman
Panthers – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral
Cardinals – Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley
49ers – Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, Nate Sudfeld
I could write a synopsis for each of these teams, but the fact remains that they have their guy(s) in house and they are going to stick with it. One could argue that the Panthers aren’t a lock with Baker, but even in the scenario that Kelly were to move on, they still have Matt Corral waiting in the wings as a backup plan.
Jets – Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White
Zach should be the guy for at least the first few seasons, but we’ve already seen it happen before where the Jets head coach was ready to put the blame on his young signal caller.
Broncos – Russell Wilson, Josh Johnson
Wilson is still very good, and the Broncos don’t have a pick until the 3rd round. Broncos Country. Let’s ride.
Raiders – Derek Carr, Jarrett Stidham, Nick Mullens
Carr is decent and has 4 years left on his deal. The only way I see them move on is if Eikim struggles and gets a top 5 pick and there is a franchise QB that falls in his lap, and even then we have seen history tell us he is not afraid to shop that pick for a plethora of picks.
Rams – Matthew Stafford, John Wolford
Stafford is under contract until 2026 and Rams don’t have a 1st.
Falcons – Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Feleipe Franks
Mariota is serviceable, but Ridder is also a great prospect and could turn out to being very good if developed correctly. Bad GMing would be to struggle with Ridder in year 1, draft a new guy who is just as good as Ridder (or potentially worse!), and then seeing the same results with the new guy.
Browns – Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Josh Rosen
This is a fun one. If Watson gets canned from the league in the next week then they shoot to 100%. Maybe the Browns trade for Jimmy Garoppolo in the next week? Maybe nothing changes for the roster, and then this goes to 0%.
Steelers – Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph
Pittsburgh invested a first round pick in Pickett, but it’s also Pat controlling the roster, so if we see a Harold Limpdick come into the first draft class as an UDFA projection, go ahead and just assume he will be starting for the Steelers in the following season.
Bengals – Joe Burrow, Brandon Allen, Jake Browning
Another interesting one. I can very easily see Rfox shipping away Joe Burrow in season 1, maximizing his trade value as he looks to get a new long term deal. Burrow is very accurate, but his arm strength comes into question, as well as will Rfox get enough value in a trade to make it work.
Packers – Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Danny Etling
Will Rodgers be back next season? What is the plan for Jordan Love? Is there a third scenario out there?
Commanders – Carson Wentz, Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke
I think Sam Howell is a very promising prospect with elite arm strength. Can Glenn develop him into the guy in Washington, or will he be more interested in finding a more seasoned vet that he can just go out and sling it day one?
Eagles – Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew, Carson Strong
Longville has shown time and time again that it doesn’t much matter who is playing QB, he just wants to run the ball down your throat. Hurts is a good guy to have on your team if you can utilize him in that strategy. I think Hurts will be given at least 2 seasons worth of chances before he potentially gets moved on from, but the Eagles have 2 firsts and one of them could end up in the top 5.
Saints – Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Ian Book
I don’t think Winston is the long term answer, but the Saints also don’t have a 1st round pick. I would lean more towards the 50% side of this.
Patriots – Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe
Is Mac Jones the future? Another guy with an undersized arm, but is young and accurate. If I was in Theo’s shoes, I don’t know what I would do. I don’t think there is a market for Mac right now, but he can probably still hit the gym and grow a bit before he is maxed out on his potential.
Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, Skylar Thompson
Adel has been very quiet in his feelings about his QBs, but Teddy and Tua are essentially the same guys, just a few years difference in age, but neither are guys you are happy about being your starter. I could see Adel reaching out and acquiring a guy like Joe Burrow who is a little more established.
Buccaneers – Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Trask
If Brady sticks around, you have to consider keeping him (I assume he will be X-Factor). If he retires/doesn’t want to resign/that 3+1 is brutal, then Terry and the Bucs move on.
Texans – Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel
Davis Mills got some decent ratings boosts from the guys at EA, and we all remember what he was capable of last cycle. The Texans have two 1sts, but a TON of holes. It all depends on what Monty determines is most important for building his team, and we saw him let Danny Dimes overstay his welcome in the Giants while he built around him.
Giants – Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Davis Webb
Daniel Jones is likely gone, but on the bright side of things is he’s not going to be on the 3+1 list, so you could in theory keep him. But… hes likely not going to be the starter the next year (or even might not this year).
Lions – Jared Goff, Tim Boyle, David Blough
Goff’s actual throwing ratings aren’t actually that bad, but he’s also not going to get any better. The Lions also have two 1sts, and if Silk stinks it up with the Rams that pick could influence what Black Magic does with his plans at QB.
Colts – Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Sam Ehlinger
I call this group “Noodles and Co.” because none of them can throw it further than 25 yards down the field, and you can calculate their ball velocity with an hourglass.
Seahawks – Geno Smith, Drew Lock, Jacob Eason
BP has shown us time and time again that he always wants to find “his guy” at QB, often trading away elite QBs to draft that new one. Only thing different here is there is no savvy vet in his way, and as far as I know he’s not a Big Cock Lock super fan. He also has two 1sts (one from Beech and his own on a rebuilding Seahawks team), so he very well could end up with two top 10 picks. I don’t see a scenario he doesn’t go QB.